Potential cumulative impacts of eutrophication and hazardous substances assesses the cumulative potential effect of eutrophication and hazardous substances over all ecosystem components. The evaluation is based on the pressure layer on eutrophication and hazardous substances, combined with information on all ecosystem components (57 layers) included in SPIA for HOLAS 3. The thematic analyses is calculated for each assessment unit (1 km2 grid cells) and the data set covers the time period 2016-2021. Spatial Pressure and Impact Assessment (SPIA) is the framework for assessing spatial and cumulative pressures and impacts in HOLAS 3, and this analyses present a thematic assessment including only a certain subset of layers. The framework also includes results for the Baltic Sea Impact Index (full cumulative impact assessment), Baltic Sea Pressure Index (full cumulative pressure assessment), and other thematic assessments where a subset of pressure and ecosystem layers are used. For more info please - visit the HOLAS 3 website (http://stateofthebalticsea.helcom.fi/) - download the report thematic assessment of spatial distribution of pressures and impacts 2016-2021 (https://helcom.fi/post_type_publ/holas3_spa) - or check out the HELCOM SPIA online tool to make calculations for any desired combination of pressures and ecosystem layers (https://maps.helcom.fi/website/bsii/). Please scroll down to "Lineage" for a more detailed description of the methodology.

This dataset is built from the following Human activities dataset: • Hunting of seals The number of hunted seals (see separate metadata on hunting of seals) were averaged over 2011-2014 separately for grey seals, ringed seals and harbour seals (e.g. number of hunted grey seals / year). In Sweden the numbers of hunted grey seals in 2011 (74) were reported for the whole Swedish territorial waters), but here the numbers were set only to Swedish Gulf of Bothnia, as corresponding numbers were reported there in 2013 (75) and 2014 (65). The area of the reporting unit was used to calculate the number of hunted seals / km2 and the data was converted to 1km x 1km grid. For the Baltic Sea Impact Index, the values were normalized. Normalized value 0.5 was set to the level of quota for hunting of seal species in the Baltic Sea. The following quotas for hunting were used: Grey seal: 2000, Ringed seal: 350, Harbour seal 230.

Broad-scale habitat maps for the Baltic Sea have been produced in the EUSeaMap project in 2016. For German and Estonian marine areas, national (more accurate) datasets were used. German data included both substrate and light information (division into infralittoral/circalittoral). Estonian data included only substrate and the division into light regimes was obtained from the EuSeaMap data. Here, the habitat class “infralittoral mud” includes classes “Fine mud”, “Mud to sandy mud” and “Sandy mud” of the original data, in the infralittoral zone. The original polygon maps have been converted to 1 km x 1km grid. The scale of the substrate data used in broad-scale habitat maps varies from 1:250 000 to 1:1M (data from EMODnet Geology). Coarser resolution data has been used in areas, where 1: 250 000 substrate data has not been available. Due to different scales used, the habitat classes may show different sized patterns in different areas.

This map shows the distribution and abundance of ringed seals across the Baltic Sea. The map was originally created for HELCOM Red list assessment of the Baltic Sea, using seal expert consultation. For the Baltic Sea Impact Index, the map was modified to represent four abundance classes, based on expert consultation. The map has been updated from the 1st version of HOLASII, based on expert consultation (HELCOM Seal EG).

Springtime Chl-a concentration is here used as a proxy for productive surface waters. In the Baltic Sea Impact Index (BSII), areas with high springtime phytoplankton production will be given higher importance, as they are considered important areas for the Baltic Sea food web. In the current map, mean of springtime maximum weekly values (weeks 12-22, years 2003-2011) Chl-a concentration of the surface waters has been used, derived from satellite data (MERIS). Years 2003-2011 have been used, as there is no MERIS data available for years 2012-2016. The data for eastern Baltic Sea is provided by the Finnish Environment Institute (~300m resolution). Outside this high resolution data, MERIS-data downloaded from JRC-database has been used (~4 km resolution, to calculate average of maximum monthly values for April or May for 2003-2011). Both datasets were converted to 1 km x 1 km grid cells.

Esker islands (according to Habitats Directive Annex I) are glaciofluvial islands consisting mainly of relatively well sorted sand, gravel or less commonly of till. Also their underwater parts are included in the habitat. The distribution map is based on data submission by HELCOM contracting parties. Only Sweden and Finland reported occurrences of esker islands. Only underwater parts are included in the datasets. The data is based on modelling and GIS analysis. Data coverage, accuracy and the methods in obtaining the data vary between countries.

Pressure layer combines all human activities that cause physical disturbance or damage to seabed. For several human activity datasets, spatial extents were given (table below). Buffers with decreasing value rates were applied to represent the impact distance of physical disturbance. The following human activities were combined into the physical disturbance layer; - Cables (under construction, 1 km buffer) - Coastal defence and flood protection (under construction, 500 m buffer) - Deposit of dredged material (500 m buffer for points and areas) - Dredging (maintenance) (500 m buffer for points and areas) - Extraction of sand and gravel (500 m buffer) - Finfish mariculture (1 km buffer) - Fishing intensity 2011-2016 average (subsurface swept area ratio) - Furcellaria harvesting - Pipelines (0,3 km buffer) - Recreational boating and sports - Shellfish mariculture - Shipping density - Wind farms (under construction) (1 km buffer) - Wind farms (operational) (0,1 km buffer) The human activity data sets were first processed separately covering the whole Baltic Sea and then summed together. In this integration, some data layers were down-weighted to arrive at a balanced pressure layer, as described below. High pressure intensity and/or slow recovery (weighting factor 1): Coastal defence and flood protection, Deposit of dredged material, Dredging, Extraction of sand and gravel and Fishing intensity Moderate to high (Weighting factor 0,8): Pipelines and Shipping density Moderate (Weighting factor 0,6): Finfish mariculture, Shellfish mariculture and Wind farms (under construction) Low to moderate (Weighting factor 0,4): Cables Low (Weighting factor 0,2): Maerl and Furcellaria harvesting, Recreational boating and sports and Wind farms (operational) Harbours and marinas were left out from the physical disturbance pressure to avoid double counting due to their representation in the shipping density and recreational boating and sports data sets.

The occurrence of suitable nursery habitats is crucial for maintaining fish populations (Sundblad et al. 2013). For perch, species distribution modelling studies (Snickars et al. 2010, Bergström et al. 2013, Sundblad et al. 2013) have shown the importance of suitable environmental conditions for reproduction. Due to lack of coherent data on perch spawning and nursery areas across the Baltic Sea countries, environmental variables were used in delineating potential recruitment areas for perch. The distribution area or perch recruitment is delineated by selecting areas where depth < 4 m (For Danish waters < 3 m), logged exposure < 5 (exposure model described in Isæus 2004), and salinity < 10 PSU. The threshold values have been obtained from literature (Snickars et al. 2010, Bergström et al. 2013, Skovrind et al. 2013, Sundblad et al. 2013). Relatively “loose” thresholds have been used, to rather overestimate than underestimate the recruitment area (precautionary approach). Along the Finnish coastline a national model has been used (Kallasvuo et al. 2016), with suitable environments for perch recruitment generalized to 1 km x 1 km grid.

The pressure oil slicks and spills is combination of following datasets: • Illegal oil discharges • Polluting ship accidents Illegal oil discharge data is based on airborne surveillance with remote sensing equipment in the Baltic Sea Area. The area of the detected spills in 2011–2016 was used to represent the pressure. The value of spills under 1km2 were directly given to grid cell, spills over 1km2 were buffered based on estimate spill area. For polluting ship accidents the reported oil spill volumes (m3) in years 2011-2015 were used for the pressure. Some polluting ship accidents spills were missing spilled oil volume, thus a mean of reported volumes was given to accidents with missing oil volume. Datasets were handled separately. Both layers were normalized, summed and normalized again to produce the “oil slicks and spills” pressure layer. Please see below for further details.

Reefs (according to Habitats Directive Annex I) are hard compact substrata (either biogenic or geogenic) on solid and soft bottoms, which arise from the seafloor in the sublittoral and littoral zone. Distribution of mapped Natura 2000 habitat “Reefs” based on data submission by HELCOM contracting parties. Most of the submitted data is based on modelling and limited ground-truthing. Data coverage, accuracy and the methods in obtaining the data vary between countries.